10 US states will vote in the primaries in “Super Tuesday”. So far, it’s still unclear who will win the nomination of the Republican party. These contests can either pave the road for Romney’s nomination, or pave the road for Obama’s reelection. In both cases, it is likely to help the greenback. As discussed in the quarterly report, certainty is the key for the dollar. The level of uncertainty is now lower regarding US politics. Mainstream Scenarios The improvement in the economy certainly supports Obama. In addition, the Republican contest has been more complicated than expected. The candidates have spent more money and words criticizing each other. This also helps Obama. The mainstream scenario is that Mitt Romney will win the primaries. While he is the most electable candidate, his policies are not too different from Obama’s, especially regarding the economy and foreign policy. Romney might pose a threat to a second term for Obama, but it isn’t likely to make a difference for the dollar. Rick Santorum has surged on the expense of Newt Gingrich. Both lean to the conservative right wing. If Santorum makes big gains against Romney in Super Tuesday and eventually wins, it will be much easier for Obama to win, and the level of certainty will be even higher. Ron Paul’s influence The fourth candidate trailing behind is Ron Paul. He is certainly different, with a totally different approach to foreign policy. He is a very outspoken critic of the Fed and it’s QE policies. If Ron Paul manages to hang on the race, his words against QE will continue echoing. QE has a very strong impact against the dollar, and the Federal Reserve isn’t deaf to criticism. It doesn’t necessarily take victories for Ron Paul to make the difference. If the battle remains close between Romney and Santorum, there is a small chance that Republican party will continue the race until the convention. Ron Paul and his delegates could be a key factor in determining the nominee and his criticism of the Fed will continue to be heard. Nearly half of US states will have the primaries behind them after March 6th, and the picture will be clearer. Ohio seems to be the main battleground between Romney and Santorum. This article is part of the special report about the Greek endgame and everything that rocks euro to dollar in March. You can download it by joining the newsletter in the form below, which appears on any article on Forex Crunch. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Expert score 5 Etoro - Best For Beginner & Experts0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 5 Read Review Open My Free Account Your capital is at risk. Opinions share Read Next USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Ivey PMI Index Mar 2012 Kenny Fisher 10 years 10 US states will vote in the primaries in "Super Tuesday". So far, it's still unclear who will win the nomination of the Republican party. These contests can either pave the road for Romney's nomination, or pave the road for Obama's reelection. In both cases, it is likely to help the greenback. As discussed in the quarterly report, certainty is the key for the dollar. The level of uncertainty is now lower regarding US politics. Mainstream Scenarios The improvement in the economy certainly supports Obama. In addition, the Republican contest has been more complicated than expected. The candidates have… Top Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.