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Guest post by bforex


The EUR has been under pressure lately, but is bouncing off lows after touching an intra day low just north of 1.31. The 50 day moving average will act as strong Resistance for the EUR. However, a close above the 50 day MA coupled with a close above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retrace at 1.36 may have the EUR challenging more meaningful Resistance at 1.38. The prevailing trend line is still downwards sloping and a drop back below near term support at 1.3280 may have the EUR once again retesting recent lows.


The British Pound was trying to rally until sovereign default risk sky rocketed. The GBP has since found Support at the 50 day Moving Average. Additionally, the GBP is trying to keep above the prior range between 1.4975 and 1.5310. The most recent but short lived range holds between 1.5310 and 1.55. The 100 day moving average is not far behind at 1.56. Using a Fibonacci Retrace from the 2009 high to the 2010 low also places the 23.6% Retrace at the 1.5310/5 S&R handle. A close below the 50 MA would signal further GBP weakness. A close above Resistance and the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the Pound may look to retest 1.55 again.


After attempting to blow beyond Dollar parity for much of the last 6 weeks the CAD is finally looking a little weak.   It is currently sitting at near term CAD Support which coincides with the 50 day moving average. When 2 significant points collide it usually triggers sizable price action on   a break out (should one occur). A close above Support and the 50 day MA will signal possible further CAD weakness ahead. While a bounce off these levels would suggest the CAD will continue to trade this narrow range between 1.0167 and .9980. A close below .9950 and the CAD will have regained momentum.