Analysts at TD Securities are looking for Sweden’s CPIF to come in at 2.3% y/y in in June (mkt 2.1%), which is a tenth below the Riksbank’s forecast from the July MPR.
Key Quotes
“The downside is coming from outside of energy prices, as we look for CPIF ex-energy to edge a tenth lower to 1.4% y/y, which is two-tenths below the Riksbank’s forecast. If we’re right, this would make for the largest downside surprise vs the Riksbank in three months, and coming only a week after the last MPR could cast some doubt on the Riksbank’s view that it would begin raising rates later this year.”
“Today we also get the Riksbank minutes from last week’s meeting. Given the slightly hawkish tone to last week’s decision, when the Riksbank stuck pretty firmly to its forecast for a Q4 rate hike, we’ll likely see a reasonably upbeat tone to today’s minutes as well.”
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