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Analysts at TD Securities are looking for Sweden’s CPIF to come in at 2.3% y/y in in June (mkt 2.1%), which is a tenth below the Riksbank’s forecast from the July MPR.

Key Quotes

“The downside is coming from outside of energy prices, as we look for CPIF ex-energy to edge a tenth lower to 1.4% y/y, which is two-tenths below the Riksbank’s forecast. If we’re right, this would make for the largest downside surprise vs the Riksbank in three months, and coming only a week after the last MPR could cast some doubt on the Riksbank’s view that it would begin raising rates later this year.”

“Today we also get the Riksbank minutes from last week’s meeting. Given the slightly hawkish tone to last week’s decision, when the Riksbank stuck pretty firmly to its forecast for a Q4 rate hike, we’ll likely see a reasonably upbeat tone to today’s minutes as well.”