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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that their nowcast models point to a 0.6% q/q gain to Sweden’s GDP (mkt: 0.2% q/q on a wide range of estimates), which if materialised would leave TD (and likely the Riksbank) comfortable with a December rate hike, but only barely (especially as Wednesday’s retail sales report showed very weak Q4 momentum).

Key Quotes

“But uncertainty is wide this quarter, and markets are perhaps a bit too confident of the December hike (vs Feb). A big downside surprise could shift pricing of the next Riksbank hike to February quite rapidly. The Riksbank’s Jansson speaks at 8:30am GMT.”