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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that Sweden’s  August’s CPI report is likely to show stronger CPIF and CPI (both to 2.3% y/y), with TDS call for CPIF in line with the market consensus.

Key Quotes

“Of much more importance is the CPIF ex-energy figure, which we expect to remain unchanged from July’s 1.3% y/y, which is in line with last week’s Riksbank forecast. But there remains great uncertainty around the August figures–new methodology last year for package holidays meant that the category fell over 20% m/m in August 2017, and while we look for this to roughly repeat, there are significant risks in the monthly evolution of the series until seasonal patterns can be more fully established.”

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