Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, notes that the Swiss GDP grew 0.2% QoQ in 4Q18, with growth picking up again, following the 0.3% contraction in GDP in 4Q18.
Key Quotes
“Manufacturing contributed significantly to this result (+ 1.5%), offsetting its very poor Q3 performance. This was particularly thanks to the rise in merchandise exports (+5.6%). At the same time, domestic demand remained weak. While private consumption has picked up somewhat, investments have contracted – a sign of increased uncertainty.”
“Over 2018 as a whole, GDP increased by 2.5%, its best result since 2014. Growth in 2018 was mainly driven by foreign trade.”
“The encouraging 2.5% growth rate in 2018 follows an up-and-down year: with an exceptional first half (with 0.9% and 0.7% QoQ growth in Q1 and Q2) after very good momentum in late 2017 and the second part of 2018 strongly disappointing.”
“The question now is whether in 2019 Switzerland will be able to maintain a growth rate higher than that of the eurozone. We believe that this will be difficult, and expect the Swiss economy to grow at a rate of around 1.2% in 2019.”
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