The US dollar is somewhat weaker ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. What’s next?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Upward pressure has eased; EUR to trade sideways for now.
While we held the view the “rebound in EUR could extend to 1.1500″ since Monday (19 Nov, spot at 1.1410), we added, “1.1500 is a rather strong resistance and for now, the prospect for a clear break above this level is not high”. However, the abrupt turnaround in EUR from a high of 1.1472 yesterday (20 Nov) came as a surprise. The overnight low of 1.1356 was one pip above our ‘key support’ at 1.1355 but the subsequent weak daily closing in NY (1.1370, -0.70%) is enough to indicate that the ‘positive’ phase in EUR has ended. There is no change to the neutral outlook and from here, we expect EUR to trade sideways in the coming days, likely within a relatively broad range of 1.1280/1.1440.
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Prospect of a fresh low for the year has increased. No change in view.
The recent high volatility has eased as GBP traded in a relatively calm manner over the past couple of trading days. For now, we view the price action as part of a short-term consolidation phase and we still see the risk of GBP moving below the year-to-date low at 1.2662. As indicated last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 1.2775), we expect GBP to stay under pressure unless it can move and stay above 1.2980. Until then, GBP could continue to consolidate and trade sideways for a couple more days.
AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Short-term top in place; AUD to trade sideways for now.
While we highlighted yesterday “upward momentum is not as impulsive as preferred” and “the next resistance at 0.7380 may not come into the picture so soon”, we clearly did not expect the sudden outsized decline of more than -1% (NY close of 0.7214, -1.10%). The break of the 0.7255 ‘key support’ indicates that the upward pressure that started earlier this month has ended and last Friday (16 Nov) 0.7338 high is deemed as a short-term top. To put it another way, we expect AUD to hold below 0.7338 for the next 1 to 2 weeks and trade sideways. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.7140/0.7290 consolidation range. Looking further ahead, the longer-term outlook (in terms of multi weeks and months) still appears to be positive and only an unlikely break of 0.7100 would suggest AUD could threaten the round-number support of 0.7000.
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Short-term top in place, NZD to trade sideways for now.
We highlighted the importance of the 0.6900 level in recent updates and noted, “a break of this level would indicate that NZD has found a mid to long-term bottom”. However, this crucial resistance level remains unthreatened and after the sharp decline yesterday that took out the 0.6800 ‘key support’, this level is unlikely to come into the picture anytime soon. In other words, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.6883 last week and the current price action is deemed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. Near-term, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6720/0.6860 range.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00. No change in view.
There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (19 Nov, spot at 112.80). As highlighted, the rapid increase in downward momentum suggests there is “chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00″. This is a relatively strong support and a clear break of this level would suggest USD is ready to challenge the October low of 111.36. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ level has edged lower to 113.40 from 113.60. A break of the ‘key resistance’ would indicate that the current downward pressure in USD has eased.
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