Markets are on the back foot amid uncertainty on US-Chinese trade relations and one day ahead of the Mid-Term Elections. What’s next?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
EUR/USD:Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range.
There is not much to add to last Friday’s (02 Nov, spot at 1.1400) update wherein last Tuesday’s (31 Oct) low of 1.1299 is deemed as a short-term bottom and this level is expected to hold for the next couple of weeks. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a sideway-trading phase even though the immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range. Looking ahead, a clear break back below 1.1330 would greatly increase the prospect for a sustained decline below the major 1.1300 support.
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Rebound in GBP has room to extend higher to 1.3100.
There is not much to add to last Friday’s (02 Nov, spot 1.3000) update. As highlighted, despite the strong advance in GBP, we do not think the price action is the start of a major bullish reversal. That said, we see room for the current GBP strength to extend to 1.3100 but in view of the severely overbought conditions, the rally should at least temporary ease upon off from there. On the downside, 1.2840 is likely strong enough to hold any interim GBP weakness, at least for the next one week or so.
AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance.
We indicated last Friday (02 Nov, spot at 0.7205) there is “scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance”. AUD took a ‘sniff’ at this level but retreated quickly from a high of 0.7258. As highlighted, this 8-1/2 month declining trend-line is a ‘key and critical’ resistance and a break of this level would suggest that the 0.7021 low seen on 26 Oct is a significant mid to long-term bottom. Despite failing to break above 0.7260 on Friday and the subsequent rapid pull-back from the high, another attempt to break this level is not ruled out. Only a move back below 0.7110 (no change in ‘key support’ level from last Friday) would indicate that a short-term top is in place. Looking ahead, a break of 0.7260 would indicate that AUD is ready to move above the September’s peak of 0.7315.
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Scope for NZD to test the September’s peak of 0.6700.
We highlighted last Friday (02 Nov, spot at 0.6645) there is “scope for NZD to test the September’s peak of 0.6700”. NZD subsequently rose to a high of 0.6690 before pulling back quickly. From here, there is no change to our view and we continue to see chance for a ‘full test’ of 0.6700. While the prospect for a sustained break above 0.6700 is not high, a clear break of this level could lead to a quick pop to the next resistance at 0.6720. On the downside, only a move below 0.6565 (no change in level of ‘key support’) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD has moved back into a range trading phase.
There is not much to add to last Friday’s (02 Nov, spot at 112.80) update. As highlighted, after the recent whippy price action, the nearterm outlook is clouded. For now, we view the current price action as part of a 112.00/113.50 range trading phase. Looking ahead, the upside appears to be vulnerable but only a NY closing above 113.50 would suggest USD is ready to challenge 114.00.
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