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ANZ analysts note that the Thailand’s GDP expanded by 2.8% y/y in Q1, the weakest performance in four years.

Key Quotes

“The decline in exports was a key drag, but private consumption and investment growth also slowed. Looking ahead, the economy faces multiple pressure points, ranging from weak external demand to domestic political uncertainty.”

“For full year 2019, our growth forecast is 3.2%, lower than the national economic planning agency’s revised projection of 3.3-3.5%. We expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate on hold through 2019 and 2020, with the balance of risks tilted towards a cut.”