ANZ analysts note that the Thailand’s GDP expanded by 2.8% y/y in Q1, the weakest performance in four years.
“The decline in exports was a key drag, but private consumption and investment growth also slowed. Looking ahead, the economy faces multiple pressure points, ranging from weak external demand to domestic political uncertainty.”
“For full year 2019, our growth forecast is 3.2%, lower than the national economic planning agency’s revised projection of 3.3-3.5%. We expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate on hold through 2019 and 2020, with the balance of risks tilted towards a cut.”