Analysts at Nomura explained that a notable change by the Powell Fed has been the shift to tighten financial conditions, rather than purely to focus on employment and inflation.
Key Quotes:
“This is evident by the Fed’s reluctance to become dovish on weak equity and credit market performance. This may have been easy call to make around the VIX shock of early February, which came and went relatively quickly, but since mid-April this may be more challenging. Since then both credit spreads and the dollar have risen, while US stocks have rallied. This is something we have seen for a while.”
“It appears that equities are taking solace from tax-cut-boosted EPS and upcoming share buybacks, while credit and the dollar are being affected by tighter liquidity conditions.”
“The worsening credit picture and stronger dollar mean that US financial conditions are deteriorating, which in turn should affect the US growth picture and pricing of Fed tightening.”