The Strength of the US dollar is Unconfirmed

The Strength of the US dollar is Unconfirmed

We can see some massive dollar moves after BOJ intervention which obviously caused cause some selling pressure on other majors as well, and not only against the Japanese yen. We are sure that many traders out there are considering a change of a larger trend on many FX pairs; in fact, even we did. But we however, must keep in mind that just few hours of reversal does not necessarily mean “change of a larger trend”.

On our latest 4h updated counts (members only), you will notice that all pairs are still trading above/below their critical regions, which means that these moves can be temporary as well! In fact, 37if trend has really changed because of the BOJ, then we also need to keep in mind that any Usd/Jpy recovery after the intervention was mostly limited, and did not last more than 48 hours.

The next important thing that we need to mention is Euro/SP futures correlation. We know that these two markets are mostly trading together! Well, if that’s the case, and if this dollar gains are for real, then of course we would expect lower levels on SP Futures also.

Guest post by Gregor Horvat

Well, on the chart below we can see that there is actually a “gap” between those two markets, which means that current dollar strength is not confirmed by a stock market. Even oil prices did not move lower as we would expect while dollar is rising. Now the question is which market will catch up the moves!? Will Euro move higher or S&P lower?!

So, what is our bias here!? Well, from a long-term we expect a decline on stocks, so if we get weaker SP and broken critical levels highlighted on 4h FX pairs, then we will go with dollar bulls. So until then we remain cautious.

Euro vs. SP Futures

EUR USD Elliott Wave Analysis October 31 2011

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Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Grega Horvat Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and His feature articles have been published on,, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory,,, etc. He recently won the award on for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At Ew-forecast he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators. EW-Forecast To be involved in the market effectively, you need the right guidance and resources, and our team can help you to achieve that. Our team is providing advanced informations about Elliott Wave theory in real time. The Elliott Wave Principle gives you a method for identifying the behavior of the markets and at what points the market is most likely to turn. We help new traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our views as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power!