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FX markets have been confused to say the least. A return to zero for the Fed would, in normal circumstances, be a major depreciatory force for the USD. Obviously, these are not normal circumstances, economists at TD Securities report.

Key quotes 

“We prefer to emphasize the USD’s appeal in the short-term even though the strategic outlook has very quickly turned sour.” 

“Market functioning has been impaired and the USD will be in demand. While we do not want to ascribe too much weight to this week’s risk asset rout, it is clear that ‘traditional’ correlations or rational expectations are being challenged.”

“After benefiting from a positioning/carry unwind in previous weeks, it is very difficult to see what the EUR has to offer right now.” 

“Unless you believe that Europe is the new Japan, the outlook is truly bleak. The region’s economy was already teetering on a recession prior to the pandemic anyway. The US travel ban just added insult to injury.”

 

Expert score

5

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