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A post-Brexit transition trade deal is likely to be reached by early November although a breakdown in negotiations cannot be ruled out, said the Goldman Sachs analysts in the latest client note.

Key quotes

“Our core view remains that a “thin” zero-tariff/zero-quota trade agreement will likely be struck by early November, and subsequently ratified by the end of December.”

“The risk of a breakdown in negotiations cannot be ruled out.”

“We continue to think the perceived probability of ‘no deal’ will persist beyond the next European Council meeting in mid-October.”