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Available forecasts show a greater decline in GDP in 2020 in the eurozone than in the United States. The reality may be different, in the opinion of analysts at Natixis.

Key quotes

“The lasting deterioration in important US industries, such as automotive and aeronautics, which will suffer from the fall in demand for durable goods and in air transport, and which are important industries in the US.”

“The surge in unemployment, caused by the very rapid adjustment in employment in companies, is leading to a sharp rise in household defaults on loans, which will lead to a crisis in the banking system as in 2009.”

“The sustained decline in global GDP, and therefore in global energy consumption, may lead to oil and natural gas prices that are permanently lower than those required for profitable oil and shale gas production in the US. We will, therefore, see a sharp decline in oil and gas investment and production in the US, resulting in a sharp decline in employment in this very important sector.”