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“On 1 September, a new round of bilateral US-China import tariffs came into force. The US implemented 15% tariffs on an additional USD 110bn of imports from China; a second batch is due on 15 December,” notes ABN AMRO’s senior economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen.

Key quotes

“China has also started levying 5-10% import tariffs on an additional USD 75bn in US goods, including a 5% levy on crude oil. This latest tariff round is in line with our base scenario of a further escalation of the trade/tech war, and consequently a further weakening of economic growth.”

“Our 2020 growth forecasts for the US, the eurozone and China have all been below consensus for a while, mainly for this reason. In our view, the escalation of US-China tensions (and the US-driven tendency to challenge the notion that ‘globalisation is always good’) is the main factor behind the weakening in global manufacturing.”

“Despite all twists and turns in this conflict, the situation has become worse since last year and has contributed to worldwide policy uncertainty, a drop in business confidence and a slowdown in corporate investment spending and global trade.”