The ratings agency Moody’s believes the trade wars will have a negative but a manageable aggregate impact on global growth and inflation.
“We expect the trade dispute between the US and China and other countries to be prolonged, with further trade measures being put in place over the rest of 2018,” said Elena Duggar, chair of Moody’s macroeconomic board and co-author of the report, according to Bangkok Post.
Key quotes and forecasts (Source: Bangkok Post via Reuters)
Currently, we think that the trade dispute will stop short of full implementation of the most severe potential measures announced so far, including tariffs on all US automotive imports or a breakdown of NAFTA.
The trade restrictions are expected to cut about 0.25 percentage points off US real GDP growth in 2019 and will cut China’s real GDP growth by between 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points in 2019.
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