Election day is today and everything is ready. Here is our full guide, video guide, and all the updates. And here is the view from SocGen:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
(1) Base case: Clinton wins the Presidency, but with split government as the GOP keeps the House. The
What does seem clear from today’s very positive reaction to a slender poll lead for Mrs Clinton, is that the market has been very nervous indeed in recent days. Trump is risk-off, Clinton is risk-on and markets will move whatever the result or more particularly, whatever the results in Florida and North Carolina.
Another consensus view (and one which I share) is that the Yuan has further to fall. Scepticism about the recent stronger data and concern about its reliance on excessive debtfinancing is a common theme but more than that, as long as the Chinese authorities can engineer a weaker currency, they will. Personally, I’m not sure that shorting CNH would ever be a favourite trade, but I’m left wanting to sell a post-election NZD and AUD rally, wanting to sell SGD, KRW and JPY under almost any circumstances.
My own favourite non-FX trade is to sell gilts regardless, my favourite FX trades are to be long the Euro on Trump, short the Yen on Clinton, and since Clinton’s ahead, long USD/JPY is my best guess.
For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus
By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch.
Share
