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Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew assesses the developments and implications of the second impeachment of President Trump.

Key Quotes

“After the riotous attack on the US Capitol last week, the US House of Representatives on Wednesday (13 Jan) voted 232 to 197, to impeach US President Trump with the charge of high crimes and misdemeanors for inciting an insurrection at the US Capitol on 6 Jan 2021, making Trump the first sitting president to be impeached twice by the lower chamber of the US Congress.”

“However, there may not be enough time to remove Trump before President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration on 20 Jan.”

“Recall that for the impeachment to pass in the Senate, it requires 2/3 majority to vote for the impeachment… So far, no Senate Republicans have yet said they will vote to impeach and remove Trump, although two Republican senators have called on Trump to resign following the attack at the US Capitol and a third Republican senator said he would consider whatever article the House sends across the Capitol.”

“Even if the impeachment proceedings will likely drag over into Biden’s term (after Trump’s official departure on 20 Jan), there will still be consequences for Trump. The first is that if he is to be impeached by the Senate, then a subsequent measure could be tabled against him to disqualify him from running for the US presidency in 2024. Secondly, Trump may also lose the perks given to former US presidents.”

“There is likely no short term macro-economic impact from Trump’s impeachment, as the US leadership focus have already shifted to President Elect Biden and expectations of his policies will be the ones that matter.”