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The Barclays Research Team offers its thoughts on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting due later week on the side-line of the G20 meetings.

Key Quotes:

“Markets are looking for any signs of a potential thawing in the US-China relations.

A temporary ceasefire or an outline agreement may constitute a “good” outcome  and provide a short-lived reprieve for risk assets.

A “bad outcome” in which we see no progress on trade talks or a further souring of the US-China relationship.

Beyond the G20 summit, however, we expect the US-China relationship to remain difficult, and trade tensions to intensify next year.  

On the USD, we think markets have overreacted to recent Fed caution and believe that the foundations for further Fed rate hikes remain solid. As such, we remain comfortable with our long USD vs. North Asian FX view over the medium term.”