Morten Lund, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that on Sunday, the Turks will vote both at the presidential and parliamentary elections and recent polls suggest that an Erdogan win in both elections is not at all a done deal. Key Quotes “On Sunday 24 June, Turkey will hold both presidential and parliamentary elections. The election has been called the most important in Turkey’s modern history after the Turks at last year’s constitutional referendum voted for a replacement of the current parliament system with an executive presidency. The new, highly criticized amended constitution will come into effect after the elections.” “With a high number of core voters and a leading majority in most polls, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks set for five more years in office. However, Turkish polls are notoriously unreliable and some of the recent non-Erdogan biased polls suggest that it will be a very close call in the first presidential round.” “While it is almost certain that Erdogan will win the presidential election in at least a second round-off, the parliamentary election is surrounded by more uncertainty. The big question is whether Erdogan and his supporting parties will lose majority of the 600-seated parliament.” “Erdogan’s tight grip on the central bank demanding too low interest rates is the main reason why the Turkish lira is so weak. Hence, one might believe that an Erdogan defeat in both the first round and in the parliament, is the most market-friendly outcome.” “However, given that Erdogan at least will win the presidential election in the second round and he has the power to dissolve the parliament, an Erdogan defeat in the parliament would be the worst-case scenario for the markets as this would only create a period with uncertainty and a political deadlock. In this case, EUR/TRY could be pushed up to all-time highs seen this year around 5.70 and the Turkish CDS spreads would continue its recent rally.” “Instead, a scenario where Erdogan wins both the first round in the presidential elections and in the parliament, could a bit counterintuitively be welcomed most by markets. However, we only expect a limited TRY-positive reaction as this is the expected outcome.’ “No matter the outcome, political uncertainty will remain in Turkey in one way or another. Consequently, a political risk premium will still be attached to the Turkish lira and we should not expect to see a much stronger TRY before Erdogan allows the central bank to act independently and thereby restores its credibility.” FX Street FX Street FXStreet is the leading independent portal dedicated to the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. It was launched in 2000 and the portal has always been proud of their unyielding commitment to provide objective and unbiased information, to enable their users to take better and more confident decisions. View All Post By FX Street FXStreet News share Read Next USD/CAD still targets the 1.3532/97 band – Commerzbank FX Street 5 years Morten Lund, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that on Sunday, the Turks will vote both at the presidential and parliamentary elections and recent polls suggest that an Erdogan win in both elections is not at all a done deal. Key Quotes "On Sunday 24 June, Turkey will hold both presidential and parliamentary elections. The election has been called the most important in Turkey's modern history after the Turks at last year's constitutional referendum voted for a replacement of the current parliament system with an executive presidency. The new, highly criticized amended constitution will come into effect after the… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.