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Analysts at Nomura expect the TCMB to hike the policy rate by 100-125bp today.

Key Quotes

“Since 7 June (the most recent rate decision, when TCMB hiked by 125bp), headline inflation has increased by more than 3ppt, while core inflation is up by 2ppt.”

“We think the TCMB’s response should be proportional to the deterioration in headline inflation, but in the current political environment, it seems unlikely that the Bank would be able to deliver more than what it did at the last meeting.”