Analysts at TD Securities point out that in Turkey, the CBRT will announce interest rates tomorrow and they are in line with the unanimous consensus and expect no change for the benchmark 1-week repo rate at 24%.
“Similarly, we expect no change in any of the secondary rates, or amounts tendered at such rates, that shape the corridor so that the Weighted Average Cost of Funding (WACF) can also remain stable at around 24%.”
“February inflation has declined further to 19.7% Y/Y from 20.4% in January, down from a peak of 25.2% in October 2018. As normalization in prices, aided by government engineered price controls, advances, while market conditions remain favorable for risk assets, we see no reason for the CBRT to change its stance on monetary policy at this stage. However, circumstances are aligning for the CBRT to start providing a slightly more dovish message. This was also expected by the market at the last 16 January meeting, at least to some extent, but the CBRT resorted to a nearly unchanged statement, which kept the bar of policy tightness as straight as possible. This resulted in a more hawkish statement than the market was on average expecting in January.”