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In line with unanimous consensus, analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Turkey’s CBRT to keep its policy rate, the one-week repo rate, at 24.0%.

Key Quotes

“February inflation has declined further to 19.7% Y/Y from 20.4% in January, down from a peak of 25.2% in October 2018. As normalization in prices, aided by government engineered price controls, advances, while market conditions remain favorable for risk assets, we see no reason for the CBRT to change its stance on monetary policy at this stage. However, dovish nuances may become more clearly visible in the statement, even in the absence of an outright rate cut, hinting at the possibility of looser rates in the near future. Of particular interest is whether the CBRT maintains its statement that “[…] if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.”