Turkey’s relations with its Western partners to be further complicated – Standard Chartered

“The 24 June election results are several percentage points wide of what the polls envisaged: they had implied that Erdogan might be forced into a second round vote for the presidency and his Justice and Development party (AKP)-led alliance would fail to secure a parliamentary majority,” Standard Chartered analysts note.

Key quotes

“Official (preliminary) results show Erdogan achieved 52.5% of the presidential vote while the AKP-led alliance achieved 53% of the vote, which will likely translate into 58% of seats in parliament.”

“These elections also mark the beginning of the new constitution narrowly approved in a 2017 referendum; it eliminates the prime minister’s position, transfers considerable power to the president, blurs the separation of powers and allows the president to appoint senior judges. Turkey’s already tense relations with its Western partners will be further complicated by the implementation of the new constitution – especially those with Europe; institutions such as the Venice Commission have expressed serious concerns about the new constitution.”

“The AKP’s 42% share of the vote is, in fact, one of its worst results in legislative elections, 7 percentage points (ppt) lower than last time (November 2015). Its ultimate victory is thanks to its alliance with the Nationalist Movement party (MHP), which diminishes hope of a resumption of peace talks with the Kurds and makes the MHP key to Erdogan’s future political agenda in parliament.”