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Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysis team suggests that the markets already seems to have prices in the US-China trade deal and their base case, to which they assign a 60% probability, is that a trade agreement will be signed in the next 2 to 3 months.

Key Quotes

“We think any deal would include a commitment to reduce bilateral trade imbalances, and a review of intellectual property protection and forced technology transfer. But this positive outcome appears to be well priced in.”

“Chinese stocks, which are highly sensitive to the result of the talks, have been the best performing market of the year, with the Shanghai Composite up 22%, roughly twice the rise in global stocks. And US industrials, a sector which is also sensitive to trade conditions, have outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 2% points this year.”

“Also, regardless of whether an agreement is reached, the deep-seated, longer-term nature of US-China rivalry is likely to continue to be a source of periodic volatility, and should temper any market enthusiasm in the event of a trade deal.”