UK: 60% probability of a long Brexit extension – Danske Bank

In view of analysts at Danske Bank, it seems unlikely that there will be a third vote in the House of Commons on May’s Brexit deal before the EU summit starting on Thursday 21 March.

Key Quotes

“We think the EU27 leaders will end up grating the UK an extension. While we previously thought a short extension was in the case, we have changed our mind and now expect a long extension (60% likely versus 30% probability for a short extension).”

“A long extension may increase the pressure on the Brexiteers to such a degree that they end up backing the deal. Some are speculating, despite Bercow’s reservations, that May may try bring the deal forward for a vote again next week, if her strategy works.”

“A long extension would mean that the period with high uncertainties for companies is prolonged, which would continue to have damaging effects on the economy.”

“Overall, it seems like we will get a long extension or May’s deal will pass soon. We still think May’s deal passing is the most likely final outcome and a second EU referendum (after a long extension) is the second most likely final outcome.”