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Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that in terms of Brexit, on Tuesday the House of Commons is scheduled to hold a meaningful vote on the amended Withdrawal Agreement.

Key Quotes

“In the meantime, the Telegraph reported over the weekend that if PM May is forced to extend Brexit this week then the EU is preparing to impose punitive conditions, including a multi-billion pound increase in the £39 bn divorce payment. If true this will go down like a lead ballon amongst leavers.

“The rest of the weekend news has been very quiet in terms of progress on the backstop. Unless a legal rabbit is pulled out of the hat very soon tomorrow’s vote will likely result in another huge loss for Mrs May. So surely lots of news today on whether any progress has been made. If the vote is rejected tomorrow, lawmakers will then be asked on Wednesday if the UK should take a no-deal Brexit option off the table in its negotiations. If they do, then on Thursday Parliament will hold a vote on an extension to Article 50.”

“Should the extension be accepted then this would likely result in it being signed off at the March 21/22 EU summit. It’s worth noting that we also get the likely overshadowed Spring Statement from Chancellor Hammond on Wednesday. No policy announcements are expected however we will get an updated set of forecasts.”