UK: Brexit watered down? – ING

According to James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, the big question for the UK is now, whether the last-minute dash made my UK PM May will be enough to turn the tables in favour of her deal.

Key Quotes

“Until recently, Brexiteers within May’s Conservative Party have been demanding the backstop be removed from the deal entirely in order to secure their support for the deal.”

“But in recent days, the calculation has begun to change. A delay to Brexit now looks inevitable one way or another, while more moderate/pro-EU lawmakers are likely to try to force a series of indicative votes in Parliament to determine whether an alternative Brexit strategy can command a majority.”

“In theory, both factors could see Brexit watered down (if say Parliament backs a permanent customs union) or stopped entirely (if a long Brexit delay eventually leads to a second referendum). This has put pressure on the Brexiteers to rethink their positions on May’s deal, and recent comments suggest some are “looking for a ladder to climb down”.”