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The government presents its first full budget since late-2018, and economists at TD Securities expect the chancellor to stick to fiscal rules. Monthly GDP is also to be released earlier in the morning.

Key quotes

“We expect Chancellor Sunak to stick to the fiscal rules laid out by his predecessor, and to be relatively vague on large infrastructure spending, though he may outline the total envelope available.”

“Focus will be on ‘leveling up’ the country and on COVID-19 response, where we could see around £1bn allocated to helping firms and households deal with the outbreak.” 

“Monthly GDP is released earlier in the day for the month of January. We look for optimism following the election result to be reflected in activity data, with a gain of 0.2% m/m for monthly GDP (mkt: 0.2%), and manufacturing 0.1% m/m higher (mkt: 0.3%).”


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