UK: Conservative majority or another hung parliament? – ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that the UK’s election is still over two weeks away, but opinion polls have already shifted, with support from the smaller parties leaking back to the two main parties.

Key Quotes

“Most significantly, the Brexit Party has decided not to field candidates in the 317 constituencies the Conservatives won in the last election. On the surface, this looked to be a game changer, as the presence of the Brexit Party was splitting the leave vote, reducing the chance of pro-Brexit candidates getting into parliament. However, the decision to continue fighting the election in other Conservative-Labour marginal seats means that it is still a significant uphill struggle for Conservatives to win a majority. With that said, a Conservative majority still looks more likely than a Labour majority.”

“For Labour, the likely best case scenario would be having the largest number of MPs but not an absolute majority, meaning they would need the support of the SNP and/or Liberal Democrats to form a government.”