UK: Deal or no deal? – Danske Bank

Analysis team of Danske Bank, points out that unlike Theresa May, UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants both the hard-core Brexiteers from the European Research Group (ERG) group and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on board before signing a deal with the EU.

Key Quotes

“Remember the EU can always call an extraordinary EU summit if necessary  , so negotiations are likely to continue, even if the EU summit on Thursday-Friday does not ratify a deal.”

“Even if Johnson reaches an agreement with the EU, the big uncertainty is whether he has support at home.”

“The head of the ERG group Steve Baker said the Conservative MPs should  ‘trust the PM  ‘ after he met with Johnson yesterday.  However,  The Sun  reveals that the ERG is split with some members stating they will reject Johnson’s deal  .”

“The DUP’s votes are still crucial but it said  ‘gaps remain  ‘ after the leaders met with Johnson last night. The DUP continues to reject a border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the Irish Sea. The question is whether Johnson’s pledge to give Northern Ireland money from London, EU and Dublin may persuade it.”

“In our view,  Pro-Brexit Labour MPs will probably still have reservations about voting in favour of a deal, as Johnson’s version of Brexit is harder than Theresa May’s. Pro-Brexit Labour MPs want safeguards on workers’ rights and environmental and consumer standards. Labour MPs voting for Johnson’s deal may be expelled from the party and get their whip withdrawn.”