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According to Danske Bank analysts, while Boris Johnson is more pro-Brexit than Theresa May, the arithmetic in the House of Commons does not change. It will be difficult to force a no-deal Brexit through.

Key Quotes

“Our base case is a further extension but it is not a high conviction call. We need to monitor whether and if the dynamics in British politics change. The uncertainty is whether there will be snap election.”

“The range of possible outcomes is likely to be 0.86 (if Brexit-related news improves markedly) to 0.91 (against expectation but if we see much weaker data and/or by pricing a higher probability of no-deal Brexit.”