UK election polls: Rising odds of a Conservatives majority – GBP positive

The latest UK election opinion polls conducted for several UK news publications showed on Saturday that the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s Conservative  (Tory) Party maintains its lead over the opposition Labour Party, although almost half the polls showed the Tory lead narrowing.

Key Findings

According to the YouGov poll conducted for the Sunday Times newspaper revealed that the support for the Conservatives (CON) stood steady on 42% vs. Labour’s (LAB) at 30%. The lead shows a gap of above 10 points.

Separately, the Deltapoll for the UK daily, Mail, showed that the support for Tories stood at 43%, down two percentage points from last week, while Labour was unchanged at 30%.  The third-placed Liberal Democrats gained 5 percentage points of support, rising to 16%.

According to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Express newspaper, Johnson’s lead over the Labour Party has narrowed a little since Wednesday. The support Conservatives was unchanged at 42% but that for Labour rose by a point to 32%. The Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party were unchanged at 15% and 5%.

Opinium poll for the Observer newspaper showed that the lead is at its widest since 2017, with Conservatives now enjoying the  support of 47%, up three points from last week, while Labour remained at 28%. The Liberal Democrats fell two points to 12%, while the Brexit Party fell to 3%.

The latest poll by BMG for the Independent newspaper revealed the Conservatives were on 41%, up 4 points compared with the last BMG poll on Nov. 10. Labour fell a point to 28%. The Liberal Democrats rose two points to 18%.

FX Implications

• UK  election  Polls: GBP/USD remains sensitive to every survey
• GBP/USD  to remain rangebound with expectations firmly around a Conservative win – ING