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Analysts at Nomura point out that so far in the first three months of the fiscal year (Apr-Jun) the UK”s headline deficit (PSNB ex-public sector banks) has been just over GBP5bn narrower than the same period a year ago.

Key Quotes

“The Office for Budget Responsibility is playing this down, arguing that timing effects and revisions could easily scupper the improvement. For this reason we expect a smaller improvement in the July budget balance relative to a year ago than has been the case on average over recent months.”