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Analysts at Nomura point out that the UK’s headline manufacturing index has been around the 54.0 to 54.5 level over the past three months.

Key Quotes

“Concerns about protectionism, Brexit, China etc. could have a negative effect on this index. Combined with a fall in the business activity index of the services survey (we forecast a fall from 55.1 to 54.5) that would imply a decline in the composite index to around 54.5 – which would mean that it remains about half a point above its H1 average.”