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Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that after the EU approved the Brexit deal, focus in the UK turns to the House of Commons’ arithmetic.

Key Quotes

“At the time of writing, 95 Conservative MPs have said they will vote against the deal and not many Labour MPs showed up to a government briefing on it. Right now, things are clearly not moving in the right direction for Theresa May, questioning our base case with the deal passing the House of Commons, although we still think it will be closer than some might think. Based on the discussions among political analysts in the UK, it seems like Theresa May is increasingly aware of the probability of losing the vote, but that she thinks it might pass the second time. If she loses by a big margin, she probably needs to resign.”

“The vote in the House of Commons will take place on Tuesday 11 December with five days of debate starting on 4 December. Theresa May will start a tour across the country campaigning for the deal. The hope is that more public support will help. While Theresa May’s approval rating has improved lately, the public remains divided on what to think of the deal. In another blow, Donald Trump yesterday also warned that May’s Brexit deal could curb the UK’s ability to strike a trade agreement with the US.”