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The UK’s National Institue of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has recently announced that their  GDP Tracker was pointing to a  growth of 0.4 percent in 2018 Q2 and 0.5 percent in 2018 Q3.

Key takeaways from the official publication

  • According to ONS, the UK economy expanded by 0.2 percent over the three months to May.  
  • Building on the official data, our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that growth is likely to have picked up to 0.4 percent in the 3 months to June (Q2) which is close to our estimate of potential.
  • The estimated increase in three-month growth from May  to June  arises partly because the three month period to June is compared against output in the three month period to March which was impacted by adverse weather conditions and which has now dropped out of the frame of reference.  
  • Looking ahead into the third quarter, on current trends we expect GDP growth to pick-up a little to around 0.5 percent.