Analysts at TD Securities are looking for UK’s headline CPI to edge up to 2.6% y/y (mkt 2.5%), in line with the BoE’s forecast from the August IR.
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“The main catalyst will continue to be higher energy prices, although we also look for rebounds from some of the one-off soft spots in June like clothing and computer games to lift core CPI back up to 2.0% y/y (mkt 1.9%).”
“Barring any further unexpected rally in energy prices, headline CPI is likely to continue gradually moving lower from here, but still remain above the 2.0% target though to the end of 2019.”