UK: Indicative votes on the way? – ING

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, suggests that we’re likely to hear more about ‘indicative votes’ today as this is the idea that MPs could finally get a say on a range of Brexit alternatives.

Key Quotes

“Some of the amendments that have been put forward to tonight’s vote already seek to push these options, or failing that, set-up a series of indicative votes in the coming days.”

“The question is whether any option can command a majority. A ‘People’s vote’ still seems to lack the required support, given that there probably aren’t enough Conservative backers to offset the 20-30 Labour MPs who have indicated they will never vote for a second referendum.”

“The upshot is that May will likely have another attempt at getting her deal approved next week, although it’s still hard to see it being successful. Equally, while we may get ‘indicative votes’ on different Brexit options, it’s not certain that any particular alternative will gain majority support.”

“So while Parliament is likely to back an extension to Article 50, it may still lack the credible reason the EU has asked for in order to unlock a longer delay to the process. Nobody really knows for sure how long an extension might last, but this latter point suggests the wind is blowing more towards a shorter two to three month delay.”