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TD Securities analysts note that the UK PM  Theresa May has set mid-March up for the next series of key Brexit votes, and has avoided a potentially-embarrassing rebellion by her cabinet.

Key Quotes

“The Withdrawal Agreement will be voted on 12 March. If that is defeated, then on 13 March Parliament will vote on whether or not to proceed with No Deal. Should that be defeated (almost certain), then on 14 March Parliament will vote on a short, one-time extension to Article 50, likely taking it to end-June (but notably, a cliff-edge still exists at the end of this extension).”

“May’s strategy shows a clear pivot from her previous strategy of “My Deal vs No Deal” toward “My Deal vs A50 Extension”, and is an effort to pull hard-Brexit members of her party on board to support her deal or risk no Brexit at all (helped in part by Labour’s move yesterday to support a second referendum).”

“Her move also appears to have taken the sting out of today evening’s vote on amendments to her motion (the Cooper-Letwin plan now looks likely to fail, and Labour now sees 12 March as the next significant date).”