UK: Latest data points to a rebound in Q2 GDP after a lacklustre Q1 – RBS

Analysts at RBS point out that UK GDP grew by 0.3% between April and May, strong enough to lift the three-monthly growth rate from nothing to 0.2% and as a result of that even after very moderate growth in June, which seems likely, and the UK will match its post-2000 average of 0.4% in Q2.

Key Quotes

“Contrary to market expectations of a 0.5% increase, May industrial production declined by 0.4% compared to April.”

“After declining in Q1, the 2.9% month on month growth in May’s construction output brings hope.”

“The BOE’s latest quarterly Credit Conditions Survey reported UK banks have increased the supply of secured credit (e.g. home loans) modestly since end-16. In contrast, the supply of unsecured debt – credit cards, store cards and car loans -, has been trimmed back over the same period.”

“The UK posted another set of fairly dismal trade figures in May, the deficit rose to £8.3bn. The cause was pretty straightforward, falling goods exports (especially cars) and rising goods imports did the damage.”