UK: On the third vote, Brexit will be? – Westpac

According to Tim Riddell, macro strategist at Westpac, the only Brexit certainty is continued uncertainty and with only a week before the Article 50 end date EU Leaders provided some breathing space for Mrs May’s nearly suffocated deal for a Withdrawal Agreement.  

Key Quotes

“On Tuesday (or Wednesday) this week another “meaningful vote” is likely on a largely unchanged deal. Parliamentary support for her deal is already low and the lack of support could mean that the deal is not tabled and Parliament could go straight into seeking alternative plans or purposes for a longer extension.”

What have EU-27 offered?

• If May’s deal is passed, the Brexit date is extended until 22nd  May.
• If May’s deal fails, UK has until 12th  April to find an alternative plan or purpose after which another 9 month extension is available to facilitate the new plan or purpose.”

“So what now?

PM May must gather her divided Cabinet, whose members are on the verge of resignation or even ministerial mutiny.  It appears that if the deal fails, May might be forced to resign as PM.

If the deal passes, however slim that now seems, UK will then leave EU on 22nd  May (EU Parliamentary elections voting ends on 23rd  May).

If the deal fails, UK’s Parliament will have until 12th  April to come up with an alternative plan. If accepted by EU-27, UK will then have another extension of some nine months.

If no plan can be found or agreed upon, the UK will face either:

• A no-deal exit
• Revoking Article 50 and remaining in EU”