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UK: Parliament has a majority against a No-Deal Brexit – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the UK  Parliament voted on a series of amendments to Theresa May’s “Plan B” Tuesday night, and most were defeated.

Key Quotes

“The two amendments that passed (narrowly) showed a (non-binding) parliamentary majority against leaving with no deal, as well as a majority in favour of the Brady amendment asking the PM to seek changes to the Irish border backstop.”

“The results of the votes broadly show that Parliament has a majority against a No-Deal Brexit, but no majority for any concrete plan to reach a deal to stop crashing out, though for once her Conservative Party was mostly united in a series of Brexit decisions.”

“The EU followed up quickly on the results, with Donald Tusk saying that no further changes can be made to the Withdrawal Agreement. May hopes that that tone might start to change soon, with Brexit looming just two months away. The EU has, for example, suggested that if Theresa May’s red lines were to move, they would offer a better deal: Juncker reportedly said last Friday that the EU would consider re-opening the Withdrawal Agreement on the condition that the UK sign up to a permanent Customs Union.”

“Whether Parliament is ready to pay that price has yet to be seen, but Jeremy Corbyn last night agreed to meet with Theresa May to discuss Brexit options. So the ball is now in Theresa May’s court, as she returns to Brussels seeking changes to the Withdrawal Agreement. She will then present Parliament with a new “Meaningful Vote” on 13 Feb, and if that fails, lay out next steps the following day. At this point, an extension of Article 50 is almost certainly inevitable.”

 

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