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Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that the UK Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May has announced that she will quit as Conservative leader on 7 June, paving the way for a Conservative leadership contest to decide the next PM.

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“MPs can put forward their names to be on the ballot (assuming they have the support of two other MPs). A series of ballots by Conservative MPs would whittle down the list to two MPs – each ballot knocking out the candidate with the fewest votes from their peers. The final vote is by Party members via postal ballot on a ‘one member, one vote’ basis. The winner will become the new Conservative Party leader.”

“Whoever ends up succeeding Theresa May might first attempt to push through a new version of Brexit – either an augmented version of the PM’s deal or a pivot to a no-deal exit – but given the deep-rooted divisions within the current Parliament, we think that a new leader will face the same difficulties as has Theresa May. As a result, we think there is a rising risk of a snap general election being called.”