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According to Rabobank analysts, for the UK economy, politics remain in focus with the UK by-election, where if the Tory candidate loses and he is expected to, the BoJo government loses its working majority.

Key Quotes

“That further complicates the parliamentary arithmetic, of course, and backs the view the UK will have a general election soon. However, it’s equally clear that vote would be held on a ‘Leave any which way’ policy from the Tories and the Brexit Party, perhaps in coalition, against a ‘Remain regardless’ stance from the Lib-Dems and Labour(?) and the Greens and all of the new mini-parties that have sprung up like mushrooms on the decaying corpse of British-politics-as-usual.”

“Yet Brexit and Tory voters strongly overlap: do Labour and Lib-Dem voters quite as much, given the latter were so recently in a Tory coalition? Like I said, watch GBP as well as the BOE.”