Search ForexCrunch

Retail Sales have likely plunged by double-digits in April. The pound has resisted previous top-tier releases but may succumb to pressure at this juncture – especially if the yearly figure misses estimates, FXStreet’s Yohay Elam reports.

Key quotes

“Headline retail sales dropped by 5.1% in March – the shuttering came into effect only on the 23rd of that month – and are now projected to collapse by an additional 16%. That would already be devastating.”

“The yearly figures are also of interest and feed into estimates of the crash in Britain’s economic output in the second quarter. Expectations for headline annual fall stand at a plummet of 22.2%.” 

“A drop of around 20% in monthly sales and over 25% in year on year figures will likely have an adverse impact, as explained earlier. It would add pressure on the BoE to act.” 

“If data remains within expectations, sterling will likely ignore the data and return to moving to the tune of negative rates speculation and Brexit headlines.” 

“A smaller slide in expenditure – perhaps around 10% monthly and below 20% quarterly, sterling could bounce amid hopes that shoppers are more resilient – perhaps thanks to the government’s successful furlough scheme.”