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Analysts at TD Securities are looking for UK retail sales to start out on a weaker footing in July with a -0.2% m/m decline (mkt +0.2%).

Key Quotes

“While services activity overall should be reasonably healthy, we think that retail sales were probably hurt again by the warm, sunny weather as we’ve had further reports of falling footfall on the high streets with the Brits out basking in the parks and at the seaside rather than going shopping.”

“Bars and restaurants were likely supported by England lasting further into the World Cup, and travel/tourism also would have been supported by more Brits taking domestic holidays to take advantage of the weather, but neither of those sectors is included in retail sales.”

“Within the retail sales report, we look for a repeat of June with food store sales holding up reasonably well, but a decline in nonfood store sales. Monday’s Visa spending data suggests sharp downside risks to our view of a downside surprise – the Visa data suggests as severe a fall as -1.5% m/m.”