UK: Snap election will be an EU referendum in disguise – Danske Bank

According to Danske Bank analysts, we are heading for snap election in UK, which would be an EU referendum in disguise.

Key Quotes

“Late last night, the Johnson government lost a key vote in the House of Commons meaning there will now be a debate (and later a vote) on a Brexit extension bill forcing the UK government to ask the EU for an extension if the politicians have not agreed to leave the EU with/without a deal by 19 October.  There is very likely a majority for the Brexit delay bill. There was no big market reaction to the result, as it was very much anticipated.”

“After the defeat, PM Boris Johnson said he would put forward a proposal today, calling for a snap election on 15 October. The opposition parties have rejected supporting this until the Brexit extension bill has passed, which it likely will early next week, possibly Monday.  As calling for snap election requires a two-third majority, Johnson is probably unable to prevent the Brexit extension bill from passing  (despite the attempt to filibuster the bill in the House of Lords).”

“If we are right that we are heading for a snap election very soon, the election will be a proxy Brexit referendum.”

“The chaotic political situation in the UK (and possible snap election) means it is very hard to imagine any real discussions/negotiations with the EU will take place now.”

“Looking at polls, the support for the Conservative Party has surged after PM Boris Johnson took office (at the expense of the Brexit Party). Given the ‘winner takes it all’ political system, it is difficult to translate the lead into a number of mandates.”