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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the UK activity data dump confirmed thier bearish view of UK economic growth, with a strong 0.6% q/q print for 18Q3 driven almost entirely by July activity and a rebound from a negative trade shock in 18Q2.

Key Quotes

“Monthly GDP dynamics point to a stagnant economy, with the economy stagnant at 0.0% m/m for both August and September, confirming our long-held view that activity has lost all momentum on Brexit uncertainty and the unwind of one-off factors during Q2. The business investment figures in particular reinforce a view of an uncertain spending climate, with the sector showing negative q/q growth rates for three consecutive quarters.”