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Previewing next week’s key events in the UK, TD Securities analysts noted that the UK wants to finalize the outline of a deal with the EU by October 15.

Key quotes

“There are high expectations for some high-level give & take to finally push negotiations over the line and into the infamous “tunnel.” However, we wouldn’t be surprised if negotiations are dragged out for another few days and there’s still risk of disappointment.”

“We look for the unemployment rate to rise another 0.3ppts to 4.4%. August was the first month of a reduction in the government’s contribution to the furlough programme, so we likely saw more businesses lay off employees as it became more expensive to keep them on. Wage growth should continue to pick up on a m/m basis, but likely remain negative y/y.”